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(b) Carrying out a systematic PESTEL analysis is a key step in developing alternative scenarios about the future. Johnson and
Scholes define scenarios as ‘detailed and plausible views of how the business environment of an organisation might develop
in the future based on groupings of key environmental influences and drivers of change about which there is a high level of
uncertainty’. In developing scenarios it is necessary to isolate the key drivers of change, which have the potential to have a
significant impact on the company and are associated with high levels of uncertainty. Development of scenarios enables
managers to share assumptions about the future and the key variables shaping that future. This provides an opportunity for
real organisational learning. They are then in a position to monitor these key variables and amend strategies accordingly. It
is important to note that different stakeholder groups will have different expectations about the future and each may provide
a key input to the process of developing scenarios. By their very nature scenarios should not attempt to allocate probabilities
to the key factors and in so doing creating ‘spurious accuracy’ about those factors. A positive scenario is shown below and

should provide a shared insight into the external factors most likely to have a significant impact on Airtite‘s future strategy.
For most companies operating in global environments the ability to respond flexibly and quickly to macro-environmental
change would seem to be a key capability.
The scenario as illustrated below, clearly could have a major impact on the success or otherwise of Airtite’s strategy for the
future. The key drivers for change would seem to be the link between technology and global emissions, fuel prices and the
stability of the global political environment. Through creating a process which considers the drivers which will have most
impact on Airtite and which are subject to the greatest uncertainty, Airtite will have a greater chance of its strategy adaptingto changing circumstances.

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(c) The type of payment might influence the success of the bid. Paxis is proposing a share for share exchange which offers a continuation in ownership of the entity, albeit as part of the successful bidder. However, relative share prices will change during the period of the bid, and the owner of shares in the potential victim company will not know the precise postacquisition value of the bid. An alternative might be cash payments which provides a known, precise sum, and might be favoured for this reason. However, in some countries payment in cash might lead to an immediate capital gains tax liability for the investor.

The effective price offered would of course be a major influence. Paxis would need to offer a premium over the existing share price, but the size of the premium that would be acceptable is unknown. Informal discussions with major shareholders of Wragger might assist in determining this (subject to such discussions being permitted by the regulatory authorities).

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(ii) Answers to questions from potential investors
Maximum investment
– For the relief to be available, a shareholder (together with spouse and children) cannot own more than 30% of the
company. Accordingly, the maximum investment by a single subscriber will be ￡315,000 (15,000 x ￡21).
Borrowing to finance the purchase
– There would normally be tax relief for the interest paid on a loan taken out to acquire shares in a close company
such as Vostok Ltd. However, this relief is not available when the shares qualify for relief under the enterprise
investment scheme.
Implications of a subscriber selling the shares in Vostok Ltd
– The income tax relief will be withdrawn if the shares in Vostok Ltd are sold within three years of subscription.
– Any profit arising on the sale of the shares in Vostok Ltd on which income tax relief has been given will be exempt
from capital gains tax provided the shares have been held for three years.
– Any capital loss arising on the sale of the shares will be allowable regardless of how long the shares have been
held. However, the loss will be reduced by the amount of income tax relief obtained in respect of the investment.
The loss may be used to reduce the investor’s taxable income, and hence his income tax liability, for the tax year
of loss and/or the preceding tax year.
– Any gain deferred at the time of subscription will become chargeable in the year in which the shares in Vostok Ltd
are sold.

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(a) (i) The tax incentives immediately available
Income tax
– The investor’s income tax liability for 2008/09 will be reduced by 20% of the amount subscribed for the shares.
– Up to half of the amount invested can be treated as if paid in 2007/08 rather than 2008/09. This is subject to a
maximum carryback of ￡50,000.
This ability to carryback relief to the previous year is useful where the investor’s income in 2008/09 is insufficient
to absorb all of the relief available.
Tutorial note
There would be no change to the income tax liability of 2007/08 where an amount is treated as if paid in that year.
This ensures that such a claim does not affect payments on account under the self assessment system. Instead, the
tax refund due is calculated by reference to 2007/08 but is deducted from the next payment of tax due from the
taxpayer or is repaid to the taxpayer.
Capital gains tax deferral
– For every ￡1 invested in Vostok Ltd, an investor can defer ￡1 of capital gain and thus, potentially, 40 pence of
capital gains tax.
– The gain deferred can be in respect of the disposal of any asset.
– The shares must be subscribed for within the four year period starting one year prior to the date on which the
disposal giving rise to the gain took place.